Global trade of goods and services remained quite resilient this year despite US protectionist rhetoric. In 2019, trade momentum is set to soften to +3.6% (down from +3.8% in 2018) in line with global growth. Protectinism might stay limited but further escalation to a trade feud could cost half a point of GDP growth. The price tag of an all-out trade war could reach two points of GDP. It might also precipitate a global recession.
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