World GDP growth remains on a solid footing albeit being less synchronized. Three shocks occured since Q1: stronger than expected yields, higher commodity prices and higher (geo)political risk. The markets are likely to increasingly sanction the weakest in the loop: stress for currencies in some of the vulnerable emerging markets, like Turkey and Argentina. Brent oil prices is expected at 72 USD/bbl in 2018 and 69 USD/bbl in 2019, the spot price mid-June 2018 being at 75 USD/bbl. A temporary surge in inflation is expected in Q3 on the back of higher oil prices and depreciating currencies. Finally, the USD should further appreciate in the next 6 months (+4.5%), with the EUR/USD: 1.10 at end-2018 and 1.17 at end-2019.

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