The high number of signals of risk in Q2 2018 is reminiscent of the situation in the years 2012-2013: rise of sovereign spreads in the Eurozone, increased protectionism, higher oil prices, capital outflows from major emerging countries, global trade on the downturn. Even if the extent of the impact is not the same, taking account of a far lower oil barrel price (75 USD at the start of June 2018 compared to around 110 USD in 2012), and the yield of a 10-year Italian government bond less than twice as high, these signals confirm that the peak in world growth has passed.

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