France – Une embellie durable ?

La conjoncture s’améliore depuis quelques semaines, suggérant que les moteurs internes de la reprise sont plus dynamiques qu’initialement prévu, pouvant mener à un cycle de reprise auto-entretenue. Cependant, certains facteurs qui soutiennent la croissance en 2017 devraient disparaître en 2018 tandis que les taux d’intérêt et l’euro amorcent une remontée ; la France souffre toujours d’un déficit de compétitivité coût et hors coût, et la nécessité de réduire le déficit public pourra également limiter la croissance économique. La croissance devrait donc atteindre +1,7% en 2017 mais descendre à +1,6% en 2018.

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