Global demand in air transport will not return to its pre-Covid-19 level before 2023. The unprecedented slump in international travel will make 2020 a terrible year for the air transportation industry: Euler Hermes expects airlines’ aggregate revenues to plummet by USD310bn to USD525bn and profitability to become negative with a staggering USD60bn operating loss. Though lockdowns are now gradually being lifted and borders are starting to re-open, a central scenario anticipates a progressive exit lasting another six months, leading to a U-shaped recovery in 2021. As a result, demand in global air transport should fall by -37% (4q/4q) in 2020 before rebounding by +39% and +10% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
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