The sputtering German – French growth engine

The sputtering German - French growth engine

In the last quarter of 2018, both the German and French economies observed a significant deceleration of growth. According to our model, in Germany, one third of the drop comes from political instability and 20% from trade uncertainty – that is close to 50% which could be assigned to US-China trade tensions – and another third from the very specific regulatory shock in the auto industry. In France, 40% of the downward adjustment comes from trade, while 50% of the adjustment comes from political uncertainty related to the Yellow Vest movement.

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