The first part of 2019 was marked by the decline in world trade, which will decrease in volume over the year as a whole according to our forecasts (-0.7%), despite a slight recovery expected in the second half of 2019. At the same time, however, global economic growth is expected to slow by “only” half a percentage point this year (from 3.1% in 2018 to 2.7% in 2019) before remaining stable in 2020. And while corporate insolvencies will increase in two-thirds of countries this year, in most cases the starting point was low. How can this apparent dichotomy between growth and trade be explained?
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