As 2018 comes to an end, it is becoming clear that President Trump’s policies have shaped not only the acceleration of growth in the United States, but many policy reactions and therefore growth trajectories outside the US. The decisive ﬁscal stimulus and ﬁnancial deregulation in America have created signiﬁcant momentum: wages, investment, and ﬁnancial markets all show positive developments. What looked like a possible recession in 2019 is much less likely today than a year ago. In the meantime, Europe, China and the emerging world are plateauing at best, after a too short pickup between early 2017 and mid-2018.
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