New trends in country risks: AU G-Grade Q1 2022
On our last quarter’s G-Grade release , we said that 18 months after the start of the pandemic, hope had returned, with all indicators being in the green again. Today, this improvement in the global economy continues and our country risk measurement tool, the G-Grade, shows 17 major changes this quarter (variation of more than 0.5 points).
Ethiopia was downgraded by two insurers (-0.5 points) this quarter as the country’s situation deteriorates due to the persistence of the armed conflict. While the fighting seemed to stop at the end of December 2021, the TPLF and the Prime Minister’s federal government armies resumed fighting in the Afar region in January 2022.
On the other hand, many improvements in country risk can be noted this quarter:
+ 0.75 points : Croatia and Indonesia
+ 0.5 points : Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Egypt, Ireland, Italy, Qatar, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, Uganda and Uzbekistan
However, despite this positive trend, which reflects the improvement in the business climate linked to the deployment of vaccination campaigns and the adaptability of our modern societies, country risk remains in many areas and obstacles to a global recovery persist.
- Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine (supported by NATO and the United States) cast a shadow over the beginning of the year, and troop movements on both sides of the border contribute to the escalation of concerns.
- In China, growth is slowing down, the real estate crisis persists and the Zero Covid strategy is leading to numerous factory closures. This is exacerbating the bottlenecks in supply chains, particularly in the production of the electronic components that are used in so many of our everyday objects.
- In the United States, the reforms expected from the Biden administration are struggling to reassure and are considered disappointing at this stage.
- In Europe, the surge in inflation is having a direct impact on purchasing power, particularly because of the soaring price of oil and foodstuffs.
At the end of January 2022, the IMF has revised its world growth forecast downwards to 4.4%.