G-Grade Q3 2023

With global growth estimated at 3.0% in 2023 an in 2024 (for the record it was 6% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022 – source IMF) the world economy is slowing down, even is the first sign of inflation decreasing are popping up

In the third quarter of 2023, G-Grade, our country risk measurement tool, noted the following significant downgrades:

• (-0.75) Bolivia: from 8 to 8.75: The deterioration in the country’s economic situation has led to 3 insurers all reducing their ratings this quarter. The depletion of foreign currency reserves has only accelerated in recent years as Bolivians have lost confidence in their currency. Moreover, growth, which was 7.5% in 2022, will collapse to 1% in 2023 (according to the IMF).
• (-0.50) Burkina Faso: from 8.75 to 9.25: Despite 2 coups d’état in 2022, the country is reporting higher growth, thanks in particular to increased exports (gold and cotton). But signs of political instability in the country, and more broadly in the Sahel, continue to mount.
• (-0.50) Ecuador: from 7 to 7.5: The country is facing a wave of violence against the backdrop of early presidential elections. 
• (-0.50) Kenya: from 7 to 7.5: Between April and July, there were several mass demonstrations and damage caused by the rising cost of living in East Africa; tax hikes have been imposed .
• (-0.50) Uganda: 7 to 7.5: Growth has been robust in 2022 and 2023, but the country is facing political instability and tensions on its borders (with Rwanda in particular).

A number of countries are seeing their situation improve:

• (+0.75) Qatar: from 4 to 3.25: upgraded by 2 insurers, the country sees all its economic indicators in the green: robust growth, low debt levels, current account surplus, with high gas prices continuing to strengthen an already flourishing economy.
• (+0.50) Iceland: from 3.50 to 3: GDP is expected to reach 2.3% in 2023 (fairly high for a European country), debt is low and tourism continues to drive the economy.
• (+0.50) Ireland: from 2.50 to 2: after a very strong post-covid rebound (12% growth), the country is driven by strong domestic demand and despite the increase in the corporate tax rate, no major group has announced it will change its HQ location.

The following countries have also been upgraded:

• (+0.50) Malaysia: from 3.75 to 3.25
• (+0.50) Saudi Arabia: from 4.5 to 4
• (+0.50) Tanzania: from 7 to 6.5

The G-Grade is a rating system developed by AU Group that summarises (on a quarterly basis) the country risk assessment carried out by the 4 main global insurers: Allianz Trade Atradius, Coface and Credendo. It enables the weighting of country risk and promotes better risk management. Our clients, prospects and partners welcome the relevance of this indicator, which contributes to a better understanding of their debtor risk in times of increasing economic and political instability.