In spite of a gradual recovery, political risks are on the rise


The forecasts presented in this barometer are very high. They are primarily linked to the global health situation: since June, the pandemic has continued to gain momentum. While waiting for a vaccine and/or a treatment, businesses and households have postponed spending and investment projects, both out of constraint (during the containment period) and as a precaution. Overall, Coface anticipates a global growth rate of -4.8% in 2020, followed by a 4.4% rebound in 2021. According to these forecasts, GDP in the Eurozone and in the United States at the end of 2021 would remain 3.5 points and 2 points below the 2019 levels, respectively. This means that at least 3 years would be required to return to pre-crisis levels of production. The observation is similar regarding world trade: the rebound anticipated next year (+3.5% in Q4 2021 compared to Q4 2020) will be far from offsetting the drop expected for this year (-13%).

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