Navigating Insolvencies in 2024 - Part 8 - AU Group

Navigating Insolvencies in 2024

Part 8 : Leveraging Indicators for Strategic Advantage in an Uncertain Market

Roch Simard, MBA

AU Group Canada

About this virtual conference

On March 20, 2024, we hosted a virtual conference focused on navigating insolvencies in the coming year, presented to the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC). In this insightful session, I had the privilege of interviewing Mr. Maxime Lemerle, the Lead Analyst for Insolvency Research at Allianz-Trade, as we explored the resilience of Canadian entrepreneurs in the aftermath of COVID-19.

In a business landscape marked by uncertainty, especially within the USA, the role of both macro-level and individual performance metrics in assessing insolvency risk becomes paramount. I turned to Maxime Lemerle for insights on how companies can effectively leverage these indicators for strategic planning and risk mitigation.

Maxime’s Insights on Key Indicators

Maxime emphasized the critical importance of integrating both macro-level indicators and individual company performance metrics into strategic planning efforts. On the macro level, significant or unexpected changes in economic fundamentals, such as GDP, employment rates, and financial conditions, signal shifting risks affecting demand, profitability, or liquidity. These indicators serve as early warning signs, enabling companies to adapt their strategies in anticipation of market changes.

At the individual level, Maxime highlighted the necessity of analyzing a company’s financial performance in relation to its peers, despite the inherent challenges of finding perfect matches due to differences in products, services, and other factors. Furthermore, the use of advanced technologies, particularly AI and machine learning, has significantly enhanced the prediction of insolvencies. These technologies enable the generation of comprehensive risk scores by analyzing a mix of financial and non-financial indicators, such as company age, location, and sector.

The Role of Technology in Predicting Insolvencies

The advent of AI and machine learning has revolutionized the approach to predicting insolvencies, offering detailed insights into potential risks at both the macro and individual levels. These technologies facilitate a deeper understanding of the factors leading to insolvency, allowing for more informed decision-making and strategic planning.


In an era characterized by volatility and uncertainty, the ability to effectively leverage macro-level indicators and individual performance metrics is crucial for navigating insolvency risks. Maxime Lemerle’s insights underscore the importance of adopting a holistic approach to risk assessment, incorporating both traditional economic indicators and the latest advancements in AI and machine learning. By doing so, companies can gain a strategic advantage, enabling them to make informed decisions and adapt to the ever-evolving market landscape.

About this series

This insightful session is part of our ongoing commitment to providing valuable perspectives that can help entrepreneurs and business leaders strategize for the future. For those who missed the earlier sessions, we invite you to review the conference materials available on our website for a comprehensive understanding of this evolving landscape.

For further details

For those looking for further details or who have additional questions, Jocelyn St-Onge from Allianz-Trade Canada and I, Roch Simard, are readily available as resources to assist you.

We extend our gratitude to Maxime Lemerle for his expert analysis, to Véronik Ménard and her team at the BDC for facilitating this important discussion, and to all the participants who joined us for this conference. It’s through these collaborative efforts that we can equip ourselves with the knowledge and tools needed to thrive in the evolving business landscape of 2024 and beyond.

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