New trends in country risks: AU G-GRADE Q1 2017
In the first quarter of 2017, credit insurers have reassessed numerous countries.
Most of these have resulted in positive upgrades, and, in particular, we can highlight:
- Argentina: Investment is expected to change the situation significantly in 2017, as the capital control measures loosen. Inflows will be especially focused on industry sectors such as automotive. The measures taken by Mauricio Macri start to show positive effects.
- Other Latam countries are showing growth trends and especially Panama due to infrastructures investments, Nicaragua and Jamaica due to dynamism of private consumption.
- Central Europe, including Bulgaria and Armenia have seen the business climate and economic growth strengthen, as well as a consolidating banking sector.
- Iceland: Measures linked to capital control are decreasing gradually. Moreover, the tourism industry remains a strong driver for growth.
On the other hand, other countries have seen their situation deteriorating:
- Mexico is being downgraded due to the “Trump effect” and the high exposure of its exports to USA. The possible renegotiation of the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) might frighten investors.
- In Africa, Mozambique faces a huge drop in its domestic growth. Accustomed since 2006 to GDP growth around 7%, 2016 is expected to be around 4% and 2017 should collapse to around 1%, mainly due to sovereign debt crisis.